damper

[lapsedmodernist]

California, WTF?

Can this go to SCOTUS?

Comments

[monkeypunk.livejournal.com]

Well, there's a shifty little bit missing from most of the mainstream news sources that have declared prop 8 passed. The Secretary of State says (on her website) that the current count has yes votes ahead by 434,830 votes, *but* 3 to 4 million votes remain uncounted. A significant number of these are "purged" voters who were forced to cast provisional ballots (an estimated 1 million in Los Angeles alone) and of course all the absentee ballots.

So the No campaign isn't accepting this, instead insisting that every vote be counted before a decision is handed down.

[lapsedmodernist.livejournal.com]

yeah, I read that after I posted this. Dec. 13th is the date, right?

If it's still passed, then I hope it goes to SCOTUS. I read that SF will be filing a lawsuit with the California Supreme Court, but I don't know how that would work, because the court can't override the state constitution--BUT if federal judges ruled that this was in conflict with equal protection, then hopefully this bullshit would be made done with for good.

[monkeypunk.livejournal.com]

Yeah, the plan if it does pass is to pour whatever money Equality for All has left, or can raise into taking this to as many courts as possible. It'll have to go to the state SC first, and they'll have to declare themselves powerless, and then they can begin the federal circuit.

[flintultrasparc.livejournal.com]

Yep, then the liberal Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, who would probably strike it down. Then the Prop 8 folks would have to appeal it to SCOTUS.

[heresiarch.livejournal.com]

the court can, however, decide that the proposition was too ambitious and amounts to revising the Constitution, not simply amending it, requiring legislative approval (you can read about the ACLU/Lambda challenge here).

i don't know how likely it is for that to work, but it would be nice.

Not likely

[cos]

Assuming prop 8 actually passes after all the votes are counted (seems likely, but we don't know), the CA supreme court seems a much better place to take it than the US supreme court. There's no reason to believe that the current US supreme court thinks banning gay marriage is unconstitutional, as they've never made a ruling saying that. If they make a ruling saying they don't think so, it could do damage to future efforts.

[nearly-there.livejournal.com]

Lord, I hope that it will go that far.

I imagine that they'll start with the California supreme court, and that there will be quite a lot of popular support. Also, assuming that the first challenges take as long as they often do, a SCOTUS retirement, too, might be plausible and potentially helpful.

[bricology.livejournal.com]

Yeah -- this will almost certainly remain a states issue; I can't see the SCotUS wanting to get involved. Regardless of the tally for the Proposition, it should be returned to the State Supreme Court who will probably declare it over-reaching. The Legislature will take it up again (and pass it for a third time), Schwarzenegger won't veto it this time, and same-sex marriage in CA. will finally be legit.